2008: Good Year for Games. 2009?
Monday, December 22, 2008
2008 was a good year for games. We here at DeLano produced a bunch of great games and the industry as a whole did well, producing some new classics (Agricola) and some new best sellers (Sorry! Sliders, Pictureka, Ruckus). It has been said repeatedly that board and card games fair better during a recession than many other forms of entertainment and, so far, that has been born out this year.
On the other hand, Toys R Us is not having a banner year and KB Toys has finally called it quits, so the industry is not immune to recessionary economics, either.
In 2009, we'll have to see how things play out. If we are still in a recession at Christmastime 2009, we're going to see major retrenchments by even the most hard core game consumers. Right now, I expect to see declines in the mass market, but steady sales in the hobby market, albeit, with perhaps fewer titles released in the hobby market. I don't think we'll see quite as many new faces as people hold off on launching their game in a down market.
Paper prices went up in 2008 and we don't see them coming down in 2009. Paper producers had to eat cost increases the last several years, so even with declining energy prices (a major cost in producing paper) I don't expect prices to go down for paper in 2009. In fact, we've already had some indications that there will be another round of increases on that front.
The big story in 2009 will be the changes wrought by the Consumer Products Safety Information Act of 2008 (CPSIA). CPSIA requires major changes in certification and safety labeling for products intended for use by children ages 12 and under. DeLano is already fully compliant with the new laws, but expect a general scramble of activity in early 2009, as the law goes into full effect on February 10th - just before the NY Toy Fair.
The new safety laws have already prompted one German maker of wood toys to exit the US toy market, but we don't expect to see too much disruption in the game market. Nor do we expect the new laws to impact the trend to overseas manufacturing. We'd love to be wrong on that front, but unless there are unforeseen difficulties or concerns in getting product from China, we will still be competing against "China prices".
2008 saw several game conventions with flat or down attendance. We expect that trend to continue in 2009. Attending shows is an expensive proposition for both attendees and exhibitors, so that trend will likely continue. Oddly enough, it is probably the hobby market shows that will suffer the most, even though hobby market sales will be hurt less by the recession.
In 2008, hot themes were Relationships, the Environment and (as usual) Party Games in the mass market, European economic games in the hobby market, and Card Driven Games in the historical market. We expect the latter two markets to continue that trend in 2009 since they are slower to change. We predict that Party Games will be popular in 2009 (what a shock!), but we may see a trend towards less party and more gameplay - perhaps paving the way for a "light" Euro design to break into the mass market.
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Posted By
DeLano Service
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11:38 AM
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